The ‘Right’ View by Francis P. Sempa

Can President Trump Avoid the Curse of Middle East Wars?

The United States under President Donald Trump is once again being pulled into the vortex of the Middle East. The U.S. and Israel, who a few months ago attacked the nuclear facilities of the Islamic regime in Iran, are waging war against Iran to degrade or destroy its military capability and open the possibility of regime change. The war is only 13 days old, but already it has spread to other countries in the region. President Trump is being lauded by some Americans for having the courage to strike back at the regime that has killed so many Americans and caused such havoc globally since 1979—to do what other presidents only talked about doing; demonized by others—mostly on the left—who are against anything Trump does; criticized by others—including many on the MAGA right—who view Trump’s moves as an abandonment of his peacemaking instincts; and cautioned by still others who worry that a war in that region will once again become a debacle.

Middle East wars and conflicts have sometimes been the graveyard of U.S. presidencies. There is something about the region and its geopolitics that has often, but not always, eluded the political grasp of our nation’s leaders. Perhaps it has something to do with the region being the historic cradle of civilizations and religions—a place where cultures clash. It is the place that produced Abraham, Moses, Jesus and Muhammad. Geographically, it is the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa. It has witnessed the growth and decline of empires: Akkadian, Babylonian, Assyrian, Persian, Roman, Byzantine, Saracen, Ottoman, British and French. In the 20th century, it played a role in two world wars and the Cold War, hosted the creation of the Jewish state amidst Persian and Arab countries, and gained in importance after the discovery of oil and other energy resources.

Daniel Yergin, in his books “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power” and “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations,” describes the Middle East as an “arc of confrontation” involving Iran and its Islamic proxies, Saudi Arabia and smaller Gulf states, and Israel, with the great powers of Russia, China, and the United States all having geoeconomic interests in the region. Here, geopolitics and culture produce seemingly endless rivalries and conflict.

Among modern American leaders, President Eisenhower fared rather well in the region by working covertly in 1953 to maintain the Shah of Iran in power, which benefitted the United States for 25 years; preventing the outbreak of global war during the 1956 Suez Crisis; and securing Lebanon and other countries in the region (though not Egypt) from Soviet influence. During President Johnson’s presidency, Israel won the Six-Day War against a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria, which set the stage for the 1973 Yom Kippur War, during which President Nixon provided a crucial airlift of supplies to Israel and deterred the Soviet Union from intervening in the war. Nixon then had Secretary of State Henry Kissinger engage in “shuttle diplomacy” to begin the process that led to the Camp David Accords under President Jimmy Carter.

But President Carter effectively lost his presidency when he failed to foresee or prevent the 1979 Iranian Revolution and watched as America was humiliated during the hostage crisis for 444 days, including presiding over a failed hostage rescue attempt. From 1979 to the present, Iran has engaged in regional and worldwide terrorism, destabilizing countries in the Middle East and killing many Americans in the process.

President Ronald Reagan suffered politically from his involvement in the region during the so-called Iran-Contra scandal. President George H.W. Bush fought the first Gulf War in 1991 to evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait. It was a stunning military success, but Bush paid a price for disappointing neoconservatives who wanted to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein. Bush, in the end, did not benefit politically from a successful war in the region. President George W. Bush, however, ruined his presidency by waging endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in his Wilsonian effort to transform those countries into democracies. His heroic and Churchillian initial response to the attacks on 9/11 were overshadowed by his civilizational hubris.

President Obama began his presidency apologizing to Iran and other Islamic regimes in the region for America’s past “sins,” but he continued Bush’s endless wars and put his faith in progressive notions of the so-called “Arab Spring,” which only led to further conflict and anarchy in the region. Obama’s was a failed presidency when it came to the Middle East.

President Trump has thus far prudently waged war from the air and the sea, refusing at least for now to insert American troops on the ground in Iran. He would be wise to continue that approach, which will degrade Iran’s military capability even if it doesn’t bring regime change. The last thing he or the country needs is to fight another ground war in the graveyard of American presidencies.

Francis P. Sempa is the author of the books “Geopolitics: From the Cold War to the 21st Century” and “America’s Global Role.” He is a contributing editor to “The American Spectator” and writes a regular column for “Real Clear Defense.”