Omicron: good news, bad news, more news

By Richard Sternberg M.D.

Some good news about the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19.

Data from an Israeli study shows that people who received booster doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 90 percent less likely to die from a Delta infection than those who relied solely on the initial two-dose vaccination. Those who received the initial two-dose vaccine were 85 percent less likely to die than the unvaccinated.

Unfortunately, these are not multiplicative, but definitely represent a great risk reduction to fully vaccinated and boosted people. Now, as we see an increase and spiking of new cases overall, and especially hospitalizations and deaths in the unvaccinated, this is very good news.

Relying on the new oral monoclonal antibody pills to bail one out if he or she becomes sick is not an adequate game plan. The Merck oral medication — the only one approved to date — is not as effective as originally announced, and is only 20-30 percent effective in decreasing severe death and disease; this only if started within five days of the appearance of symptoms.

Other good news is that Omicron so far does not appear to be more virulent in the population than Delta — though that may be due to some level of immunity previously gained from other variants. The bad news is that Omicron very probably is significantly more infectious with each infected individual. Very early studies seem to show an infectivity rate of from 3.0-4.0.

This is higher than the earlier variants, and we have seen how destructive those have been.

But the really bad news is how much of our society — including educated people, even some judges and politicians — continue to fail to recognize that “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one” (that’s from Star Trek II, The Wrath of Khan). Utilitarianism also is valid here. The real problem is not that we don’t have enough vaccine doses or stronger ones but that we don’t have enough arms willing to get doses and enough noses and mouths willing to wear masks and socially distance.