The Partial Observer by Howard Dean
Trump and RFK Jr. May Usher in a Blue Tsunami
Democrats didn’t just experience a “blue wave” in November’s off-year elections—we saw a “blue tsunami.” Across the country, Democrats won elections that many experts expected to be close—from gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia to smaller local races in purple counties—in landslide victories.
One issue stood out as a quiet but powerful driver of those victories: vaccines.
Since Donald Trump returned to office, he and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have injected chaos and confusion into America’s vaccine system—and in doing so, handed Democrats a winning political issue.
That reality should be front of mind for Democrats as we head toward the midterms.
The coming campaign season follows a deeply troubling year for public health. The United States surpassed 2,200 measles cases last year amid ongoing outbreaks nationwide—the highest total in 33 years. At this rate, the country is likely to lose its measles elimination status, a hard-won achievement we have maintained since 2000.
Rather than addressing this crisis, the Trump administration has doubled down on attacks on vaccines. The president has floated unfounded claims and reckless proposals, including breaking up the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine—a move that would require additional doctor visits, force new formulations, and ultimately reduce access. He has also ordered health officials to overhaul long-established vaccine schedules without any credible scientific justification.
At the Department of Health and Human Services, RFK Jr. reshaped the nation’s top vaccine advisory panel and replaced its members with hand-picked conspiracy theorists. The reconstituted panel is now advancing changes to routine immunizations and childhood vaccination schedules that lack any scientific basis.
Just last month, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended delaying hepatitis B vaccines for infants—a change that offers no safety benefit and would almost certainly lower vaccination rates. Now, he’s overhauling the childhood vaccine schedule, putting millions of kids at risk of contracting preventable diseases. Future recommendations could jeopardize insurance coverage for vaccines or undermine federal vaccination programs altogether.
But this agenda runs directly counter to what voters actually want.
Polling consistently shows that Americans—Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike—value access to FDA-approved vaccines and trust guidance from their physicians. According to Trump’s own 2024 campaign pollster, 85 percent of Americans believe vaccines save lives.
Support for childhood vaccines in particular remains high among Republican and swing voters. Nearly 75 percent of Trump voters and 80 percent of swing voters support the MMR vaccine. Roughly 60 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of swing voters support both the hepatitis B and TDAP vaccines.
A survey by the Partnership to Fight Infectious Disease found that about 70 percent of Americans are worried about falling childhood vaccination levels, and nearly 90 percent of parents with children under 18 recognize the importance of following doctors’ recommendations.
Put simply, there’s nothing controversial about vaccines. They enjoy broad, mainstream support.
That reality has turned the Trump administration’s vaccine agenda into a major political liability for the GOP.
By politicizing routine immunization, the administration has elevated vaccine policy into a defining midterm issue—and positioned Democrats as the party of science, competence, and steady health leadership. Polls already show that voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on vaccines.
The path forward for Democrats is clear: continue championing evidence-based vaccine policy and standing with the physicians Americans overwhelmingly trust. If we do, we may be headed for another blue tsunami.
Howard Dean is the former chair of the Democratic National Committee and former governor of Vermont. This article was originally published by Newsweek.
