Letter from Chip Northrup
Trump Recession Is On Its Way
To paraphrase Tolstoy, “All happy economies look the same, all unhappy economies are different.” Trump Recession 2.0 will be, unlike Trump Recession 1.0, entirely self-inflicted. The Trump Tariff Taxes are both recessionary and inflationary, e.g. “stagflation,” in that they will increase manufacturing and retail costs across the board, which leads to decreased consumption and economic stagnation. The DOGE cuts in government employment and government programs will lead to higher unemployment rates—which is the hallmark of a recession.
All of this was anticipated in Project 2025, and is now reflected by revised economic forecasts. No pandemic necessary for this recession. It’s all self-inflicted by the Republican Party.
Musk’s cost-cutting is projected by the OMB to reduce the deficit by $2 trillion over 10 years. But the Trump tax cuts are projected to reduce revenue by $2.5 trillion, for an increase in the deficit of $500 billion. The net result is that the top 2 percent of tax payers will get lower taxes, and the other 98 percent will pay more in Trump Tariff Taxes for a reduction in government services, Medicare, Social Security benefits, etc.
Breaking a government department leads to privatization. Breaking an economy is a buying opportunity.
Chip Northrup
Cooperstown
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/inflation-may-prevent-the-fed-from-fending-off-a-recession-c4eaf623?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The way Musk is breaking the federal government — with a sledge hammer, not a chain saw — also incurs costs that the OMB may not be taking into account, such as all the court proceedings over the illegal ways Musk is using. Having mass unemployment will lead to instability throughout the country. The federal government, for all its red tape and pork, has been essential to our having a strong, stable economy and altering it so drastically will affect everyone everywhere – people who are cheering Musk and Trump on don’t seem to realize that. And Trump is already saying we’re probably going to have a recession. Is this really what people voted for?