Letter from John A. Rudy

Cutting the Nuclear ‘Gordian Knot’

As a result of the military attacks on Iran initiated by the U.S. and Israel, the U.S. and the world are faced with two seemingly unrelated conditions in the Middle East: (1) The concern about Iran’s potential development of nuclear weapons; and (2) The need to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Resolution of both may require cutting the nuclear Gordian Knot by introducing a previously unstated condition into the discussion.

The Middle East presently is free of housing a nuclear weapons state, except for Israel. For its part, Israel has engaged in what observers characterize as “nuclear ambiguity.” That is to say, Israel neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran may believe that it does. Thus, some of Iran’s perceived motivation to acquire such weapons may be to have a counter to those held by Israel. What may be needed, therefore, to induce Iran to abandon its nuclear aspirations to the world’s satisfaction, is to have Israel do likewise. In return, Iran would have reason to revert to its pre-war position and refrain from impeding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

In light of what it and others have seen recently of the changes in U.S. policies and attitudes regarding foreign commitments, Israel may be justified in concluding that its continued exclusive reliance upon the military and economic support of the U.S. needs re-thinking. A complete nuclear-free Middle East with ironclad security guarantees given by all parties to all in the region may offer the prospect of a less violent future for Israel and its neighbors.

Such an outcome may also provide President Trump with the face-saving off-ramp he needs to extricate the U.S. from the “diversion” he pursued at the behest of Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It is worth a try. To date, nothing else seems to have worked.

John A. Rudy
Cooperstown